Friday, March 22, 2024

Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows monthly Atlantic surface temperatures through February 2024 (background image), highlighting the potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the Atlantic and methane to erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

As temperatures rise, feedbacks are kickong in with greater ferocity, resulting in creased ocean stratification, less reflectivity, heavier melting of Greenland's ice and freshwater runoff from land and rivers, all of which can contribute to slowing down of AMOC. While this is causing less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean at the moment, a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic that threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean. 

The inset illustrates that, as people's emissions heat up the air and oceans, strengthening wind, ocean currents, rainfall, etc., the potential increases for a lid to form and spread at the surface of the North Atlantic. As temperatures rise, more evaporation takes place and more rain falls further down the path of the Gulf Stream, i.e. an ocean current that extends into the Arctic Ocean, as part of AMOC. This rain further contributes to the freshwater accumulation at the surface of the North Atlantic. 

This page further discusses formation of a cool freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic and the contribution to this of Jet Stream changes. The image below shows that the Jet Stream reached speeds as high as 455 km/h or 283 mph north of Washington on February 18, 2024 03:00 UTC, with Instantaneous Wind Power Density as high as 387.5 kW/m².

From earlier post Blue Ocean Event 2024?

The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.




Monday, March 18, 2024

Tragedy set to unfold in Tropics (update)

The temperature in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high on March 13, 2024. The image below shows the situation over the years through March 13, 2024, when the average daily surface air temperature was 26.9°C and 1.4°C above 1979-2000 (black line is 2024).


The previous record high temperature was reached on April 24, 2016, when it was 26.8°C, and 1°C above 1979-2000 (grey line is 2016). 

The annual maximum temperature in the Tropics is typically reached in April, but very high temperatures were also reached in early May 2023 (orange line is 2023), so the temperature this year may well rise even higher over the next two months.

Meanwhile, we're still in El Niño, according to NOAA and as illustrated by the image on the right.

The image below shows the monthly temperature anomalies over the past few years through February 2024. 


Note that the anomalies in the two above images are calculated from different bases. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, anomalies will be higher.

These high temperatures threaten to cause widespread loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failure and ecosystem collapse in the tropics.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Earlier versions of this post are discussed at facebook at:

Friday, March 15, 2024

CO2 rise is accelerating

On March 15, 2024, the daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 427.93 parts per million (ppm), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. 

This is the highest daily in situ average in the NOAA record at Mauna Loa, which is the more remarkable since the annual CO₂ maximum is typically reached in May, so even higher values are likely to be reached over the next few months. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows CO₂ for the last 31 days at Mauna Loa. 

The image below, adapted from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, shows that CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 427.80 ppm on March 14, 2024. The background shows six months of CO₂ ending March 15, 2024. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the weekly mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 425.78 ppm recently, a growth of 5.7 ppm compared to one year ago.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the annual CO₂ growth at Mauna Loa in 2023 was 3.36 ppm, the highest annual growth on record.

Clouds Tipping Point

The image below illustrates that a polynomial trend (red) can better capture the acceleration in the rise in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere than a linear trend (blue). 

The red polynomial trend also illustrates how rising CO₂ can cause the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm to be crossed before 2100, i.e. earlier than anticipated in IPCC models (inset).

Moreover, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier when also taking into account methane. Monthly methane was about 1960 parts per billion (ppb) recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below.


A methane concentration of 1960 ppb corresponds, at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200, with a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 392 ppm. Together with the above daily average CO₂ concentration of 427.93 ppm this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 819.93 ppm, i.e. only 380.07 ppm away from the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C.

This 380.07 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of methane present in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Furthermore, nitrous oxide is also rising and there are additional elements that could further speed up the temperatures rise, as discussed at the Extinction page, which shows that, altogether, there is the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C by 2026.

A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.


Environmental crimes

The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action. 

Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!

[ from earlier post ]

The image below is from the post Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson


If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.

[ image from earlier post ]

Meanwhile, Belgium has recognised ecocide as international crime and the EU Parliament has voted to criminalize the most serious cases of ecosystem destruction. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NOAA - Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa 
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

• NOAA - annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loa
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html

• NOAA - greenhouse gases at Mauna Loa 

• Belgium becomes first in EU to recognise ecocide as international crime 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/climateplan/posts/8012665172096853

• ‘Revolutionary’: EU Parliament votes to criminalise most serious cases of ecosystem destruction 

• How long do we have?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html


• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

Saturday, March 2, 2024

Arctic sea ice set for steep decline


The February 2024 temperature (at 2 meter) was much higher than in 1951-1980, especially in the Arctic, as the above image shows.


The above image is adapted from NASA and shows an average February 2024 temperature anomaly of 1.44°C above 1951-1980, with anomalies showing up as high as 11°C. 


The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. 

Two trends are added, the blue trend is based on all data (Jan.1880-Feb.2024) and the magenta trend is based on a shorter period (Jan.2010-Feb.2024), to better reflect variables such as El Niño and non-linear feedbacks as discussed in the page Feedbacks in the Arctic and in this recent post

Ocean temperature


Sea surface temperatures (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high of 21.22°C on March 10, 2024, in the Climate Reanalyzer daily records that go back to 1981. 

Sea surface temperatures may get even higher later this year. What could make the sea surface temperature go up even higher?

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The highest daily sea surface temperatures for the year are typically reached in March. 

This was the case for the previous years on record going back to 1981, except for the year 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge, resulting in the highest peak for the year occurring in August 2023.

There is a 100% probability that El Niño will be present during the 3 months from February 2024 to April 2024, according to NOAA predictions updated February 26, 2024.

The image below shows the Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, January 2000-February 2024 NOAA data (degrees Celsius).

After an astonishing rise in 2023, sea surface temperatures have come down only a little bit in Winter on the Northern Hemisphere, raising the potential for a huge rise in ocean heat later in 2024 that threatens to destabilize sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and cause huge amounts of methane to erupt and abruptly enter the atmosphere.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Ocean heat content keeps rising at a rate of change that is non-linear, as illustrated by the image below, by Zack Labe.


North Atlantic

The animation below, from Nahel Belgherze, illustrates how much hotter the North Atlantic has been over the past 365 days, while a big rise in temperature can be expected over the next few months, due to the change in season.


In February 2024, the temperature (at 2 meter) over the North Atlantic was 1.927°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the image below. 

The map below shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980 in February 2024. 


Arctic surface air temperature

The surface air temperature in the Arctic (66.5-90°N, 0-360°E) was 5.2°C above 1979-2000 on March 3, 2024, the highest anomaly on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Arctic sea ice

As the atmosphere and the oceans keep heating up, Arctic sea ice keeps declining. As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 14.746 million km² on March 6, 2024. 


As the above image shows, there are a few years with lower sea ice extent during this time of year than in 2024, which could be due to more water vapor in the air causing more precipitation in the Arctic. At this time of year, Arctic sea ice has typically reached its maximum annual extent and goes into steep descend until half September. With the change in seasons, more sunlight will be reaching the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice looks set for a steep decline over the next few months. 


As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume is already at a record low for the time of year, at a time when little or no sunlight is yet reaching the Arctic. Given that Arctic sea ice currently is not at a record low extent for the time of year, this indicates that the sea ice is very thin, due to ocean heat causing sea ice to melt from below. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one

Emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases keep rising

Meanwhile, emissions keep rising. The image below, adapted from IEA, shows the increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, 1900-2023. 


February 2024 CO₂ was about 425 ppm (background image below). February 2023 CO₂ was 420.3 ppm (inset right). The highest annual rise on record is about 3 ppm, reached in 1998 and in 2015/2016 (inset left). 

The threat

The threat of a huge, abrupt temperature rise has been described many times before, e.g. on the Threat page that describes many elements contributing to the threat, both cumulatively and interactively, with some of the content dating back as far as 2007. Another page with more background is the Extinction page.

Further illustrating the threat is the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and using a CMIP6 SSP585 model. The image shows what the temperature anomaly (at 2 meter and compared to 1851-1900) could be by 2100. Such a temperature rise may unfold much earlier when including numerous feedbacks kicking in strongly.


What can strongly contribute to such a rise is that, without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

[ The buffer is gone - Latent Heat Tipping Point crossed ]
Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - daily sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E)
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• NASA - Temperature Analysis
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (February 26, 2024 update)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Ocean heat content - image by Zack Labe

• North Atlantic daily sea surface temperature - animation by Nahel Belgherze
https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1765065264109101393

• Polar Portal - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume

• International Energy Agency (IEA) - CO2 Emissions in 2023 report

• Keeling Curve, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego - CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 

• NOOA - Monthly Averages CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 

• NOAA - annual increase of CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic

• The Threat